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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test team being over 30, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Younger bowlers have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Future Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the primary four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that train a-coming, rolling round the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.