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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.