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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.